Melo and the 3 Point Shot – Johnny Burke – Medium

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Carmelo is looking to find his way to Houston for the 2017–18 season. I don’t exactly blame him. Actually, I don’t blame him at all. New York is a dumpster fire right now and his window for snagging a ring is closing. There have been some concerns about what a team of Melo, The Beard, and CP3 will look like. For example, how will they succeed with only one ball to share between the three of them? I don’t know, but only time will tell us. Either way, the numbers tell us that if Melo wants to make the biggest impact on wins and losses he has to take less three point shots.

There are opinions about whether or not he should exercise his offensive liberties at any and all times, but this one really comes down to statistical importance on the winning and losing of the Knicks since his arrival to New York. Melo’s play time and field goal efficiencies do increase the team’s chances of winning by a significant margin. The difference between analyzing these stat lines and looking at something more particular is that his play time and FG% stay fairly consistent, but his three point attempts sway quite drastically compared to most players of his caliber. He’s never been the most high volume of shooters, but the variance of his shots is fairly high.

Here’s the caveat, the number of three point shots that Carmelo makes is not statistically significant on whether or not the team wins. So basically the more Melo shoots from behind the line the more he takes away good shot opportunities elsewhere. His three point percentages never vary far enough in his favor to be impactful of the team’s winning. It’s not to say he’s a bad shooter or that he should never shoot a three point shot, but it does tell us that having the awareness to pass up the long shot will add some W’s to the Knicks, or Rockets, record. For defenses looking to stop Carmelo we get an idea of where we want him to be at all times. We know he has a killer mid range shot and is able to make space without thinking twice. Forcing his hand at the three point line will either force assists to a teammate or more long distance field goal attempts. Either way, that’s the numbers on Melo and the 3



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